AI Researchers: Superintelligence by 2027?

🔥 What happened A team led by Daniel Kokotajlo just slashed its timelines: Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) likely arrives in 2027, not 2029. The trigger is a METR report showing Anthropic now advances AI progress twice as fast as its historical rate, with ~80% of that acceleration driven by AI itself. 💡 Why it matters A 1.7x AI-attributable acceleration isn't a productivity boost – it means AI is speeding up its own development. The authors now put 35–65% odds on Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI) before 2028. Three months ago, they gave less than 4% to the current acceleration being real. ⚡ Our take The authors call for an industry-wide pause – but whoever pauses first loses. This is no longer an alignment problem; it's a geopolitical race nobody will voluntarily brake.