OpenAI's Time Horizon Doubles Rapidly

🔥 What happened OpenAI researcher Basil Halperin analyzed internal data: the 50%-accuracy time horizon doubles every 2 months—much faster than METR's 4-7 months. At 80% accuracy, it's only 15 minutes but rising rapidly. 💡 Why it matters The gap between 50% and 80% is huge: OpenAI shows a 15x difference, METR only 4x. This could stem from different domains or contexts—and makes predicting AI capabilities harder. ⚡ Our take OpenAI is accelerating its own automation—a warning to anyone who thinks AI progress is linear. If you're not paying attention, you'll be run over by the curve.